Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Borussia Dortmund face Bayer Leverkusen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 11 as Borussia Dortmund welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Signal Iduna Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 November 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 7W 1D 2L at Signal Iduna Park — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Signal Iduna Park.
Bayer Leverkusen — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Borussia Dortmund have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 5 wins apiece for Borussia Dortmund, 3 for Bayer Leverkusen and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 48% versus Bayer Leverkusen 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 55% | Bayer Leverkusen 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.23 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 0.997 / defence 0.767 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.097 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.898 / away 1.375. Borussia Dortmund's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Borussia Dortmund games / 42 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 61% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 18%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Bayer Leverkusen 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 40% | Bayer Leverkusen 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Signal Iduna Park • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 61% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.23 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 0.997 / def 0.767 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.097 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.898 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Bayer Leverkusen xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen is scheduled to kick off at 18:30 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Signal Iduna Park.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Signal Iduna Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 61% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (10 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 5W | Draws 2 | Bayer Leverkusen 3W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Borussia Dortmund's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Bayer Leverkusen's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
61%
1.63
20%
4.90
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.39
1.16
Bayer Leverkusen xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
11%
9.31
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
2%
50.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.16 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Borussia Dortmund have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 27W 10D 5L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 21W 9D 12L from 42 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bayer Leverkusen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Borussia Dortmund have posted 2.43 PPG from 21 outings (16W 3D 2L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 9W 5D 7L from 21 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.05 scored and 1.50 conceded. Bayer Leverkusen's attacking output running into Borussia Dortmund's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 64%.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 27W 10D 5L in their last 42 games (2.17 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 21W 9D 12L in their last 42 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.43 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2022, when Bayer Leverkusen won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
3
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 5, Bayer Leverkusen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 38%, Bayer Leverkusen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Borussia Dortmund and 71% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play Bayer Leverkusen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Borussia Dortmund's recent matches and 67% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 71% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.