Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Borussia Dortmund face Bayer Leverkusen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 11 as Borussia Dortmund welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Signal Iduna Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Borussia Dortmund have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 8W 0D 2L at Signal Iduna Park — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bayer Leverkusen — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bayer Leverkusen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Borussia Dortmund have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 5 wins apiece for Borussia Dortmund, 3 for Bayer Leverkusen and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 49% versus Bayer Leverkusen 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 54% | Bayer Leverkusen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.21 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.089 / defence 0.818 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.089 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.339. Data: 35 Borussia Dortmund games / 35 Bayer Leverkusen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 60% | Draw 22% | Bayer Leverkusen 19%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Bayer Leverkusen 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 50% | Bayer Leverkusen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Signal Iduna Park • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 60% | Draw 22% | Bayer Leverkusen 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 63% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.21 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.089 / def 0.818 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.089 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.939 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Bayer Leverkusen xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Signal Iduna Park.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Signal Iduna Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 60% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (10 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 5W | Draws 2 | Bayer Leverkusen 3W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Borussia Dortmund's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Bayer Leverkusen's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
60%
1.68
22%
4.64
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.40
1.19
Bayer Leverkusen xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
11%
9.11
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
2%
48.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.19 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Borussia Dortmund have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 23W 7D 5L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 17W 8D 10L from 35 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bayer Leverkusen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Borussia Dortmund have posted 2.44 PPG from 18 outings (14W 2D 2L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 8W 4D 6L from 18 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.00 scored and 1.43 conceded. Bayer Leverkusen's attacking output running into Borussia Dortmund's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 66%.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 23W 7D 5L in their last 35 games (2.17 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 17W 8D 10L in their last 35 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.44 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2022, when Bayer Leverkusen won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
3
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 5, Bayer Leverkusen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 72% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 39%, Bayer Leverkusen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Borussia Dortmund and 67% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play Bayer Leverkusen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Borussia Dortmund's recent matches and 67% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 67% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.