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Shock result as Bayer Leverkusen defy the odds to beat Borussia Dortmund 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat Borussia Dortmund 2-3 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.60 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.50 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.21 / defence 0.82 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.23 / defence 0.77, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 38% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 34%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bayer Leverkusen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 63%, Bayer Leverkusen 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights