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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim finished level at 1-1 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.02 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 0.79 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.36 / defence 0.78 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.68 / defence 0.90, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 64% | Draw 25% | 1899 Hoffenheim 11%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 64%, 1899 Hoffenheim 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights