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Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out 1. FC Köln 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund beat 1. FC Köln 1-0 at Signal Iduna Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.90 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.96 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Borussia Dortmund fell 0.9 short of their projected output. 1. FC Köln landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.11 / defence 0.71 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.87 / defence 1.10, drawn from 41/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 59% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Köln 19%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 66%, 1. FC Köln 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

1. FC Köln's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Borussia Dortmund 1.73 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights