🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Borussia Dortmund face 1. FC Heidenheim.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees 1. FC Heidenheim travel to Signal Iduna Park to take on Borussia Dortmund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 February 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 8W 2D 0L at Signal Iduna Park — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Signal Iduna Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Borussia Dortmund have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

Borussia Dortmund hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for 1. FC Heidenheim, with 2 draws in between.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with Borussia Dortmund winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 60% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 62% | 1. FC Heidenheim 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.48 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.280 / defence 0.763 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.785 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.459. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — their λ of 2.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Borussia Dortmund's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Borussia Dortmund games / 53 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 72% | Draw 18% | 1. FC Heidenheim 10%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.39 | Draw 5.56 | 1. FC Heidenheim 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Dortmund 30% | 1. FC Heidenheim 70%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights