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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Bayern München run riot with a 8-1 hammering of VfL Wolfsburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayern München beat VfL Wolfsburg 8-1 at Allianz Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 2.43 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.25 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 8-1 for 9 actual goals. Bayern München beat their projection by 5.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.63 / defence 0.85 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.00 / defence 0.90, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayern München 62% | Draw 21% | VfL Wolfsburg 17%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 84%, VfL Wolfsburg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayern München's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bayern München (home/away splits) scored 8 against a 3.42 average — above their attacking norm. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) shipped 8 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights