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Dominant Bayern München run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Union Berlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayern München beat Union Berlin 4-0 at Allianz Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 2.74 xG and Union Berlin 1.12 xG, a combined 3.86. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Bayern München beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union Berlin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.76 / defence 0.98 against Union Berlin attack 0.84 / defence 0.94, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayern München 71% | Draw 16% | Union Berlin 13%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 85%, Union Berlin 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayern München's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Union Berlin's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Bayern München (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights