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Dominant Bayern München run riot with a 6-2 hammering of SC Freiburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayern München beat SC Freiburg 6-2 at Allianz Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 2.09 xG and SC Freiburg 0.66 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Bayern München beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SC Freiburg outscored their 0.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.60 / defence 0.61 against SC Freiburg attack 0.75 / defence 0.79, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayern München 70% | Draw 19% | SC Freiburg 10%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 82%, SC Freiburg 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayern München's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.55. Form held, and they took the win. Bayern München (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 3.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights