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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bayern München and FSV Mainz 05 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayern München and FSV Mainz 05 finished level at 2-2 at Allianz Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 3.64 xG and FSV Mainz 05 0.88 xG, a combined 4.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bayern München fell 1.6 short of their projected output. FSV Mainz 05 outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.76 / defence 0.79 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.80 / defence 1.20, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayern München 86% | Draw 9% | FSV Mainz 05 5%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 86%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 66% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 83%, FSV Mainz 05 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayern München's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights