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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Bayern München run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FSV Mainz 05.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayern München beat FSV Mainz 05 3-0 at Allianz Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 2.43 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.48 xG, a combined 3.91. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.65 / defence 1.02 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.99 / defence 0.99, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayern München 58% | Draw 20% | FSV Mainz 05 22%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 80%, FSV Mainz 05 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayern München's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bayern München (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights