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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 31

Kick-off

Sat 26 Apr 2025

14:30

Venue

Allianz Arena

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Bayern München Win

58%

Bayern München

1.72

20%

Draw

5.10

22%

FSV Mainz 05

4.52

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

8.8%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

7.2%

Draw

3 – 1

7.1%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.43

Bayern München xG

Total xG

3.91

1.48

FSV Mainz 05 xG

58%
20%
22%
Bayern MünchenDrawFSV Mainz 05

1.72

58%

Home win

5.10

20%

Draw

4.52

22%

Away win

Goals Markets

90%

Over 1.5

1.11

10%

Under 1.5

10.00

75%

Over 2.5

1.33

25%

Under 2.5

4.00

55%

Over 3.5

1.82

45%

Under 3.5

2.22

35%

Over 4.5

2.86

65%

Under 4.5

1.54

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

71%

BTTS Yes

1.41

29%

BTTS No

3.41

Clean Sheet

23%

Bayern München

4.38

9%

FSV Mainz 05

11.37

Win to Nil

13%

Bayern München

7.52

2%

FSV Mainz 05

51.36

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.0 3.0 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1
1 4.9 7.2 5.3 2.6 1.0 0.3
2 5.9 8.8 6.5 3.2 1.2 0.3
3 4.8 7.1 5.2 2.6 1.0 0.3
4 2.9 4.3 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.2
5 1.4 2.1 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.431
λ Away (xG) 1.477
Total xG 3.908
League avg home goals 1.483
League avg away goals 1.449
Bayern München attack strength 1.651
Bayern München defence strength 1.025
FSV Mainz 05 attack strength 0.994
FSV Mainz 05 defence strength 0.993
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 64 / 64