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Prediction vindicated as Bayern München edge out FC St. Pauli 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayern München beat FC St. Pauli 3-2 at Allianz Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 2.43 xG and FC St. Pauli 0.86 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC St. Pauli outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.66 / defence 0.91 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.67 / defence 0.94, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayern München 71% | Draw 18% | FC St. Pauli 11%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 78%, FC St. Pauli 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayern München's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.57. Form held, and they took the win. Bayern München (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights