🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Bayern München edge out Eintracht Frankfurt 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayern München beat Eintracht Frankfurt 3-2 at Allianz Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 4.20 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.57 xG, a combined 5.77. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bayern München fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.82 / defence 0.94 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.20 / defence 1.36, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayern München 81% | Draw 10% | Eintracht Frankfurt 8%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 81%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 93%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 98% and landed. Over 3.5 was 83% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 86%, Eintracht Frankfurt 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayern München's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.62. Form held, and they took the win. Bayern München (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights