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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bayern München edge out Borussia Dortmund 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayern München beat Borussia Dortmund 2-1 at Allianz Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 2.54 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.20 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.79 / defence 0.66 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.18 / defence 0.88, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayern München 66% | Draw 18% | Borussia Dortmund 16%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 80%, Borussia Dortmund 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayern München's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.78. That form edge translated into the three points. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.40 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights