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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund finished level at 2-2 at Allianz Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 2.81 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.45 xG, a combined 4.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bayern München fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.71 / defence 0.99 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.02 / defence 1.10, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayern München 66% | Draw 17% | Borussia Dortmund 17%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 79%, Borussia Dortmund 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayern München's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights