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Dominant Bayern München run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bayer Leverkusen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayern München beat Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 at Allianz Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 3.38 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.35 xG, a combined 4.73. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.79 / defence 0.67 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.34 / defence 1.27, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayern München 76% | Draw 13% | Bayer Leverkusen 11%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 76%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 85%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 69% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 81%, Bayer Leverkusen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayern München's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 2.05. That form edge translated into the three points. Bayern München (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights