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Werder Bremen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bayer Leverkusen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Werder Bremen beat Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 at BayArena, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.64 xG and Werder Bremen 1.07 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen fell 2.6 short of their projected output. Werder Bremen outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.31 / defence 0.79 against Werder Bremen attack 0.98 / defence 1.25, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 70% | Draw 18% | Werder Bremen 12%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a Werder Bremen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 71%, Werder Bremen 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Werder Bremen's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Werder Bremen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights