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Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Bayer Leverkusen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-4 at BayArena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.94 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.39 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen fell 0.9 short of their projected output. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.39 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.19 / defence 0.74 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.28 / defence 0.99, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 49% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 26%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual VfB Stuttgart win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 63%, VfB Stuttgart 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.55. Form was overturned, with VfB Stuttgart winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights