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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bayer Leverkusen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Union Berlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat Union Berlin 2-0 at BayArena, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.87 xG and Union Berlin 1.51 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Union Berlin landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.01 / defence 0.85 against Union Berlin attack 1.08 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 46% | Draw 22% | Union Berlin 31%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 64%, Union Berlin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.

Union Berlin's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights