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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6

Kick-off

Sat 4 Oct 2025

14:30

Venue

BayArena

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Bayer Leverkusen Win

46%

Bayer Leverkusen

2.16

22%

Draw

4.45

31%

Union Berlin

3.20

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

9.6%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.0%

Home win

1 – 2

7.3%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.87

Bayer Leverkusen xG

Total xG

3.37

1.51

Union Berlin xG

46%
22%
31%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawUnion Berlin

2.16

46%

Home win

4.45

22%

Draw

3.20

31%

Away win

Goals Markets

85%

Over 1.5

1.18

15%

Under 1.5

6.67

65%

Over 2.5

1.54

35%

Under 2.5

2.86

44%

Over 3.5

2.27

56%

Under 3.5

1.79

25%

Over 4.5

4.00

75%

Under 4.5

1.33

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

66%

BTTS Yes

1.52

34%

BTTS No

2.93

Clean Sheet

22%

Bayer Leverkusen

4.51

15%

Union Berlin

6.46

Win to Nil

10%

Bayer Leverkusen

9.75

5%

Union Berlin

20.65

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.4 5.2 3.9 2.0 0.7 0.2
1 6.4 9.6 7.3 3.6 1.4 0.4
2 6.0 9.0 6.8 3.4 1.3 0.4
3 3.7 5.6 4.2 2.1 0.8 0.2
4 1.7 2.6 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1
5 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.866
λ Away (xG) 1.506
Total xG 3.372
League avg home goals 1.600
League avg away goals 1.642
Bayer Leverkusen attack strength 1.010
Bayer Leverkusen defence strength 0.846
Union Berlin attack strength 1.084
Union Berlin defence strength 1.154
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 39 / 39