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Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out FSV Mainz 05 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat FSV Mainz 05 1-0 at BayArena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.21 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.87 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bayer Leverkusen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FSV Mainz 05 landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.41 / defence 0.99 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.29 / defence 0.91, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 46% | Draw 21% | FSV Mainz 05 33%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 74%, FSV Mainz 05 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights