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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 17

Kick-off

Tue 14 Jan 2025

19:30

Venue

BayArena

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Bayer Leverkusen Win

46%

Bayer Leverkusen

2.18

21%

Draw

4.71

33%

FSV Mainz 05

3.05

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

7.7%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 2

7.2%

Draw

1 – 1

7.0%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.21

Bayer Leverkusen xG

Total xG

4.08

1.87

FSV Mainz 05 xG

46%
21%
33%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawFSV Mainz 05

2.18

46%

Home win

4.71

21%

Draw

3.05

33%

Away win

Goals Markets

91%

Over 1.5

1.10

9%

Under 1.5

11.11

77%

Over 2.5

1.30

23%

Under 2.5

4.35

58%

Over 3.5

1.72

42%

Under 3.5

2.38

39%

Over 4.5

2.56

61%

Under 4.5

1.64

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

76%

BTTS Yes

1.32

24%

BTTS No

4.14

Clean Sheet

15%

Bayer Leverkusen

6.48

11%

FSV Mainz 05

9.16

Win to Nil

7%

Bayer Leverkusen

14.10

4%

FSV Mainz 05

27.94

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.7 3.1 2.9 1.8 0.9 0.3
1 3.7 7.0 6.5 4.1 1.9 0.7
2 4.1 7.7 7.2 4.5 2.1 0.8
3 3.1 5.7 5.3 3.3 1.6 0.6
4 1.7 3.2 2.9 1.8 0.9 0.3
5 0.7 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.215
λ Away (xG) 1.869
Total xG 4.084
League avg home goals 1.729
League avg away goals 1.460
Bayer Leverkusen attack strength 1.408
Bayer Leverkusen defence strength 0.993
FSV Mainz 05 attack strength 1.290
FSV Mainz 05 defence strength 0.910
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 50 / 50