Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bayer Leverkusen face FC St. Pauli.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC St. Pauli make the trip to BayArena to face Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Bayer Leverkusen's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at BayArena this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at BayArena.
FC St. Pauli (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Bayer Leverkusen. A 0.60 PPG lead over FC St. Pauli (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bayer Leverkusen lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
FC St. Pauli — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bayer Leverkusen 67% versus FC St. Pauli 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 61% | FC St. Pauli 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 1.77 xG and FC St. Pauli 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.057 / defence 0.892 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.786 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.415. Data: 54 Bayer Leverkusen games / 55 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 54% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 19%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | FC St. Pauli 5.26. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 50% | FC St. Pauli 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 54% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 1.77 / FC St. Pauli 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.057 / def 0.892 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.786 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
0.99
FC St. Pauli xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli?
Bayer Leverkusen 4 - 0 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 54% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli?
Record (3 meetings): Bayer Leverkusen 2W | Draws 1 | FC St. Pauli 0W.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bayer Leverkusen's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against FC St. Pauli's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (0.79x) against Bayer Leverkusen's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 54/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.78
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
2.76
0.99
FC St. Pauli xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
17%
5.87
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
3%
30.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.99 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bayer Leverkusen come into this having played 54 games, going 30W 15D 9L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC St. Pauli sit at 0.91 PPG from 54 outings (12W 13D 29L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.03 PPG clear of FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Bayer Leverkusen's home form reads 16W 5D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, FC St. Pauli have taken 0.85 points per game from 27 outings (6W 5D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 0.89 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 30W 15D 9L in their last 54 games (1.94 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 12W 13D 29L in their last 54 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or FC St. Pauli away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.96 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bayer Leverkusen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 4-0 on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bayer Leverkusen
1
Draws
0
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli?
From 4 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 3, FC St. Pauli have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 59%, FC St. Pauli 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Bayer Leverkusen) and 44% (FC St. Pauli).
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; FC St. Pauli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play FC St. Pauli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Bayer Leverkusen's recent matches and 48% of FC St. Pauli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Bayer Leverkusen's recent games and 44% of FC St. Pauli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayer Leverkusen run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC St. Pauli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat FC St. Pauli 4-0 at BayArena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.77 xG and FC St. Pauli 0.99 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC St. Pauli landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.06 / defence 0.89 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.79 / defence 1.01, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 54% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 19%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 61%, FC St. Pauli 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.