Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out FC St. Pauli 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat FC St. Pauli 2-1 at BayArena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.91 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.19 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.28 / defence 0.99 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.81 / defence 0.90, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 52% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 21%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 74%, FC St. Pauli 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.74. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights