Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bayer Leverkusen's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against FC St. Pauli's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (0.81x) against Bayer Leverkusen's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 46/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.72
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
3.10
1.19
FC St. Pauli xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
3%
31.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.19 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.