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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Augsburg defy the odds to beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Augsburg beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 at BayArena, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.31 xG and FC Augsburg 1.05 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FC Augsburg outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.30 / defence 0.90 against FC Augsburg attack 0.81 / defence 1.05, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 65% | Draw 19% | FC Augsburg 16%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a FC Augsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 59%, FC Augsburg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with FC Augsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights