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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Mönchengladbach share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Mönchengladbach finished level at 1-1 at BayArena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.76 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.32 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.07 / defence 0.88 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.89 / defence 0.95, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 48% | Draw 23% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 29%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 65%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights