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Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Bayer Leverkusen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund beat Bayer Leverkusen 2-4 at BayArena, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.79 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.19 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.19 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.10 / defence 0.72 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.13 / defence 1.07, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 50% | Draw 25% | Borussia Dortmund 24%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Borussia Dortmund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 67%, Borussia Dortmund 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.73. Form was overturned, with Borussia Dortmund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights