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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern München share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at BayArena, Regular Season - 26, as Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern München drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.37 xG and Bayern München 2.08 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bayern München landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.09 / defence 0.84 against Bayern München attack 1.77 / defence 0.74, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 25% | Draw 22% | Bayern München 54%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 59%, Bayern München 86%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Bayern München's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 1.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.97 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights