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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as 1899 Hoffenheim defy the odds to beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1899 Hoffenheim beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 at BayArena, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.89 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.48 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.03 / defence 0.95 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.03 / defence 1.11, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 47% | Draw 24% | 1899 Hoffenheim 29%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual 1899 Hoffenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 62%, 1899 Hoffenheim 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with 1899 Hoffenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights