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Bayer Leverkusen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over 1899 Hoffenheim.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat 1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 at BayArena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.30 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.01 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.31 / defence 0.89 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.81 / defence 0.99, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 66% | Draw 19% | 1899 Hoffenheim 15%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 74%, 1899 Hoffenheim 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights