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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart finished level at 1-1 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.21 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.05 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.84 / defence 1.46 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.05 / defence 0.86, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 21% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 56%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 73%, VfB Stuttgart 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights