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1899 Hoffenheim cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Union Berlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1899 Hoffenheim beat Union Berlin 3-1 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 2.03 xG and Union Berlin 0.99 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.35 / defence 0.85 against Union Berlin attack 0.79 / defence 0.92, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 60% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 16%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 60%, Union Berlin 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Union Berlin's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.34 PPG, Union Berlin 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1899 Hoffenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights