1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg – Match Report

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1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 13, as 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 2.00 xG and SC Freiburg 1.58 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.23 / defence 1.40 against SC Freiburg attack 0.76 / defence 0.99, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 46% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 29%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 74%, SC Freiburg 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.26 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights