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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FSV Mainz 05 defy the odds to beat 1899 Hoffenheim 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FSV Mainz 05 beat 1899 Hoffenheim 1-2 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.85 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.11 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim fell 0.9 short of their projected output. FSV Mainz 05 outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.11 / defence 0.85 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 55% | Draw 23% | FSV Mainz 05 23%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a FSV Mainz 05 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 62%, FSV Mainz 05 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.34 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights