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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as 1899 Hoffenheim defy the odds to beat Borussia Dortmund 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1899 Hoffenheim beat Borussia Dortmund 2-1 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.31 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.60 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.05 / defence 0.90 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.23 / defence 0.73, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 31% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 44%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual 1899 Hoffenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 64%, Borussia Dortmund 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with 1899 Hoffenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights