🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as VfB Stuttgart defy the odds to beat 1. FC Köln 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat 1. FC Köln 1-2 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 2.21 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.57 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Köln fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.17 / defence 1.04 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.91 / defence 1.12, drawn from 4/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 52% | Draw 21% | VfB Stuttgart 27%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual VfB Stuttgart win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 55%, VfB Stuttgart 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Köln's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.79 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights