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Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat 1. FC Köln 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Berlin beat 1. FC Köln 0-1 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.91 xG and Union Berlin 1.45 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Köln fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.03 / defence 1.25 against Union Berlin attack 0.82 / defence 1.09, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 48% | Draw 23% | Union Berlin 29%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Union Berlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 52%, Union Berlin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Köln's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Union Berlin's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.60 PPG, Union Berlin 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights