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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Köln edge out FSV Mainz 05 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Köln beat FSV Mainz 05 2-1 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.67 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.66 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.89 / defence 1.20 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.95 / defence 1.06, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 37% | Draw 26% | FSV Mainz 05 37%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 53%, FSV Mainz 05 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Köln's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.53 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights