1. FC Köln 1-3 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim make the trip to RheinEnergieStadion to face 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Köln have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
1. FC Köln's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at RheinEnergieStadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Heidenheim (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for 1. FC Köln, 1.00 for 1. FC Heidenheim — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Köln register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: 1. FC Köln 0W, 1. FC Heidenheim 1W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
1. FC Köln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
1. FC Heidenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 65% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 58% | 1. FC Heidenheim 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.85 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.974 / defence 1.194 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.891 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.466. Data: 32 1. FC Köln games / 66 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 45% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Heidenheim 33%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.22 | Draw 4.55 | 1. FC Heidenheim 3.03. 1. FC Köln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Köln at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 80% | 1. FC Heidenheim 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 45% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Heidenheim 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.85 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.974 / def 1.194 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.891 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.56
1. FC Heidenheim xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Köln 1 - 3 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 45% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 33% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Köln 0W | Draws 2 | 1. FC Heidenheim 1W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Köln's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Heidenheim's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. Flip it around — 1. FC Heidenheim's attack (0.89x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 32/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
45%
2.23
22%
4.47
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
3.42
1.56
1. FC Heidenheim xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
9%
10.59
5%
19.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.56 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Köln's recent record stands at 25W 18D 23L from 66 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-D in the last five.
1. FC Heidenheim, meanwhile, have gone 12W 14D 40L across 66 games — 0.76 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Köln by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Heidenheim heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Köln have managed 14W 8D 11L from 33 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Heidenheim's away record stands at 6W 6D 21L across 33 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Köln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.11 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Current Season
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 25W 18D 23L in their last 66 games (1.41 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 12W 14D 40L in their last 66 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
1. FC Köln's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.52 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Heidenheim won 4-1 on 18 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
1. FC Köln
2
Draws
2
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 0, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when 1. FC Köln 1-3 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for 1. FC Köln, 58% for 1. FC Heidenheim — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for 1. FC Köln and 61% for 1. FC Heidenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of 1. FC Köln's games and 58% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 61% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Heidenheim cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over 1. FC Köln.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat 1. FC Köln 1-3 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.85 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.56 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Köln fell 0.9 short of their projected output. 1. FC Heidenheim outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.97 / defence 1.19 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.89 / defence 1.10, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 45% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Heidenheim 33%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual 1. FC Heidenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 58%, 1. FC Heidenheim 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Köln arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Heidenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.