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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 27, as 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.62 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.27 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. 1. FC Köln beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Borussia Mönchengladbach outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.82 / defence 1.11, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 45% | Draw 25% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 30%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 55%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Köln's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.43 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights