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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1. FC Köln and 1899 Hoffenheim share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 23, as 1. FC Köln and 1899 Hoffenheim drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.29 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.68 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.84 / defence 1.09 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.11 / defence 0.91, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 28% | Draw 27% | 1899 Hoffenheim 45%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 55%, 1899 Hoffenheim 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Köln's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.50 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights