VfL Osnabrück 2-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as VfL Osnabrück face SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth make the trip to Bremer Brücke to face VfL Osnabrück in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Sunday 7 April 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form
VfL Osnabrück (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
VfL Osnabrück at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for VfL Osnabrück against 1.00 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, SpVgg Greuther Fürth edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2023, ended VfL Osnabrück 0–4 SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
VfL Osnabrück goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Osnabrück 56% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Osnabrück 56% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Osnabrück 0.92 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Osnabrück attack 0.565 / defence 1.046 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.778 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.380. VfL Osnabrück's attack rating of 0.565 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating of 0.778 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Data: built from VfL Osnabrück's last 27 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 61.
Result probabilities: VfL Osnabrück 30% | Draw 30% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40%. Fair-value odds: VfL Osnabrück 3.38 | Draw 3.31 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.49. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfL Osnabrück 40% (last 10 home games) | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 28 | Venue: Bremer Brücke • Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Osnabrück 30% | Draw 30% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG VfL Osnabrück 0.92 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Osnabrück attack 0.565 / def 1.046 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.778 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
VfL Osnabrück xG
Expected Goals
1.12
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth FAQs
What time does VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Bremer Brücke.
What was the final score in VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
VfL Osnabrück 2 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Bremer Brücke.
What competition is VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 28) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives VfL Osnabrück a 30% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VfL Osnabrück's attack rating (0.56) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.78x) against VfL Osnabrück's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from VfL Osnabrück's last 27 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
30%
3.38
30%
3.31
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
VfL Osnabrück xG
Total xG
2.04
1.12
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
10%
10.41
16%
6.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.6 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for VfL Osnabrück and 1.12 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VfL Osnabrück come into this having played 27 games, going 4W 9D 14L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth sit at 1.44 PPG from 27 outings (11W 6D 10L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of VfL Osnabrück — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
VfL Osnabrück's home form reads 2W 5D 6L across their last 13 home games, a 0.85 PPG return.
Away from home, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have taken 0.92 points per game from their last 13 away games (3W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfL Osnabrück are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.41 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Osnabrück
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
VfL Osnabrück (Home) vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfL Osnabrück
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Form FAQs
What form are VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
VfL Osnabrück have gone 4W 9D 14L in their last 27 games (0.78 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 11W 6D 10L in their last 27 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Osnabrück at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Osnabrück at home: 0.85 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.92 PPG.
Have VfL Osnabrück or SpVgg Greuther Fürth been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Osnabrück have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 3 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: VfL Osnabrück have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SpVgg Greuther Fürth won SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-0 VfL Osnabrück on 27 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Osnabrück have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
VfL Osnabrück
0
Draws
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, VfL Osnabrück have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: VfL Osnabrück 3-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
VfL Osnabrück have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfL Osnabrück see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Osnabrück 46%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (VfL Osnabrück) and 46% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth).
On the defensive side: VfL Osnabrück have failed to score in 46% of games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Osnabrück home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of VfL Osnabrück's recent matches and 46% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of VfL Osnabrück's recent games and 46% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of VfL Osnabrück's recent matches and 92% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfL Osnabrück cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Osnabrück beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 at Bremer Brücke, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Osnabrück 0.92 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.12 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. VfL Osnabrück beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Osnabrück attack 0.56 / defence 1.05 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.78 / defence 1.05, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Osnabrück 30% | Draw 30% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual VfL Osnabrück win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Osnabrück 56%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Osnabrück's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SpVgg Greuther Fürth arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with VfL Osnabrück winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VfL Osnabrück (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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