SC Paderborn 07 2-3 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hertha BSC make the trip to Home Deluxe Arena to face SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Friday 5 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
SC Paderborn 07 (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 at Home Deluxe Arena this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Hertha BSC's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.30 for Hertha BSC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SC Paderborn 07 lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 1–3 with Hertha BSC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 62% and Hertha BSC 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 74% | Hertha BSC 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.58 xG and Hertha BSC 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.883 / defence 1.149 | Hertha BSC attack 0.877 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.367. Data: 61 SC Paderborn 07 games / 27 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 42% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 33%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Hertha BSC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 50% | Hertha BSC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Friday 5 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 42% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.58 / Hertha BSC 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.883 / def 1.149 | Hertha BSC attack 0.877 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Hertha BSC xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 5 April 2024 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC?
SC Paderborn 07 2 - 3 Hertha BSC.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 42% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hertha BSC?
Record (1 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 0W | Draws 0 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hertha BSC in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SC Paderborn 07's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Hertha BSC's attack (0.88x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 61/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
42%
2.37
24%
4.10
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.96
1.38
Hertha BSC xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
7%
14.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.3 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.38 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 27W 13D 21L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC's form line: 17W 16D 28L from 61 games, 1.10 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-D. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SC Paderborn 07 are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hertha BSC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.80 PPG from 30 outings (17W 3D 10L).
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 6W 5D 19L from 30 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.56 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Hertha BSC in 69%.
Last 61 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 27W 13D 21L in their last 61 games (1.54 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 17W 16D 28L in their last 61 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Hertha BSC away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.80 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SC Paderborn 07 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won 5-2 on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SC Paderborn 07
0
Draws
3
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, Hertha BSC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 5-2 Hertha BSC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 57%, Hertha BSC 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for SC Paderborn 07 and 67% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 70% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 67% of Hertha BSC's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hertha BSC defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat SC Paderborn 07 2-3 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.58 xG and Hertha BSC 1.38 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Hertha BSC outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Hertha BSC attack 0.88 / defence 1.15, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 42% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 33%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Hertha BSC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 74%, Hertha BSC 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Hertha BSC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.