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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VfL Bochum and SV Darmstadt 98 share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 18, as VfL Bochum and SV Darmstadt 98 drew 3-3 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.20 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.44 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. VfL Bochum beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SV Darmstadt 98 outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.92 / defence 1.05 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 31% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 43%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 49%, SV Darmstadt 98 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Bochum's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights