VfL Bochum 3-3 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfL Bochum host SV Darmstadt 98 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
VfL Bochum — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for VfL Bochum, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Bochum's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Vonovia Ruhrstadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — VfL Bochum at 1.80 PPG versus SV Darmstadt 98's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VfL Bochum register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for VfL Bochum, 1 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 1–4 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
VfL Bochum in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Bochum 51% versus SV Darmstadt 98 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Bochum 49% | SV Darmstadt 98 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Bochum 1.20 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Bochum attack 0.921 / defence 1.048 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.048 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.308. Data: 17 VfL Bochum games / 51 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Bochum 31% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 43%. Fair-value odds: VfL Bochum 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfL Bochum 60% | SV Darmstadt 98 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Bochum 31% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG VfL Bochum 1.20 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Bochum attack 0.921 / def 1.048 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.048 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
VfL Bochum xG
Expected Goals
1.44
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What was the final score in VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98?
VfL Bochum 3 - 3 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What competition is VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives VfL Bochum a 31% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both VfL Bochum and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (3 meetings): VfL Bochum 1W | Draws 1 | SV Darmstadt 98 1W.
What form are VfL Bochum and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
VfL Bochum (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates VfL Bochum's attack at 0.92x the league average against SV Darmstadt 98's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus VfL Bochum's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
31%
3.18
26%
3.85
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
VfL Bochum xG
Total xG
2.63
1.44
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
7%
13.37
13%
7.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.3 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are VfL Bochum and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 1.44 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfL Bochum's recent record stands at 11W 11D 29L from 51 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for VfL Bochum is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 16L across 51 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SV Darmstadt 98 by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VfL Bochum heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VfL Bochum have managed 7W 5D 13L from 25 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 6W 8D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Darmstadt 98's season.
The Goals Picture
VfL Bochum are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.67 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Darmstadt 98 in 63%.
Last 51 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Bochum
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Bochum and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
VfL Bochum have gone 11W 11D 29L in their last 51 games (0.86 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 20W 15D 16L in their last 51 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Bochum at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
VfL Bochum's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Bochum at home: 1.04 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfL Bochum and SV Darmstadt 98 runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2025, when SV Darmstadt 98 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfL Bochum's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
VfL Bochum
2
Draws
1
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 4 meetings on record, VfL Bochum have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfL Bochum and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when VfL Bochum 3-3 SV Darmstadt 98.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Bochum 48%, SV Darmstadt 98 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (VfL Bochum) and 68% (SV Darmstadt 98). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Bochum have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Bochum home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Bochum play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of VfL Bochum's games and 72% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of VfL Bochum's matches and 68% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do VfL Bochum and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
VfL Bochum have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfL Bochum and SV Darmstadt 98 share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 18, as VfL Bochum and SV Darmstadt 98 drew 3-3 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.20 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.44 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. VfL Bochum beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SV Darmstadt 98 outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.92 / defence 1.05 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 31% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 43%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 49%, SV Darmstadt 98 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Bochum's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.