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Prediction vindicated as VfL Bochum edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfL Bochum beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.85 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.26 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 1.12 / defence 1.13 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 50% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 25%, with VfL Bochum to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 48%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Bochum's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfL Bochum 0.92 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Bochum win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights