SV Wehen 0-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Wehen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
SV Wehen welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to BRITA-Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 13 April 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, SV Wehen have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, SV Wehen have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fortuna Düsseldorf — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Fortuna Düsseldorf's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of SV Wehen's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from SV Wehen's last 10 home games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, SV Wehen have won 1, Fortuna Düsseldorf 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2023, ended SV Wehen 3–1 Fortuna Düsseldorf — a SV Wehen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SV Wehen trading profile (last 30 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (last 30 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Wehen 57% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Wehen 47% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SV Wehen surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Fortuna Düsseldorf have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 54% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Wehen 1.02 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Wehen attack 0.700 / defence 1.049 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.518 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.347. SV Wehen's attack rating of 0.700 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Fortuna Düsseldorf have an above-average attack rating of 1.518, which lifts their away xG to 2.14. Data: built from SV Wehen's last 28 games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 62.
Result probabilities: SV Wehen 17% | Draw 20% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 63%. Fair-value odds: SV Wehen 5.93 | Draw 4.90 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Düsseldorf (63%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SV Wehen's last 10 home games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SV Wehen 70% (last 10 home games) | Fortuna Düsseldorf 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Wehen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 29 | Venue: BRITA-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Wehen 17% | Draw 20% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG SV Wehen 1.02 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.14 • Poisson strength factors: SV Wehen attack 0.700 / def 1.049 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.518 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
SV Wehen xG
Expected Goals
2.14
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Wehen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf FAQs
What time does SV Wehen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
SV Wehen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at BRITA-Arena.
What was the final score in SV Wehen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
SV Wehen 0 - 2 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is SV Wehen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at BRITA-Arena.
What competition is SV Wehen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
SV Wehen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 29) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Wehen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives SV Wehen a 17% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 63% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Wehen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SV Wehen and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Wehen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SV Wehen's attack at 0.70x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus SV Wehen's defence, projects 2.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SV Wehen's last 28 games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
17%
5.93
20%
4.90
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
SV Wehen xG
Total xG
3.17
2.14
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
5.93
17%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
12%
8.53
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
2%
50.61
23%
4.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Wehen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Wehen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are SV Wehen and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for SV Wehen and 2.14 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Wehen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SV Wehen's recent record stands at 10W 7D 13L from 30 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Fortuna Düsseldorf, meanwhile, have gone 15W 8D 7L across 30 games — 1.77 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fortuna Düsseldorf by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SV Wehen heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SV Wehen have managed 5W 5D 4L from their last 14 home games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record stands at 7W 4D 3L across their last 14 away games, a 1.79 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Wehen are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 2.23 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 60%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Wehen
Current Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Current Season
SV Wehen (Home) vs Fortuna Düsseldorf (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Wehen
Current Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Current Season
❓ SV Wehen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Form FAQs
What form are SV Wehen and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
SV Wehen have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 15W 8D 7L in their last 30 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Wehen at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Wehen at home: 1.43 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.79 PPG.
Have SV Wehen or Fortuna Düsseldorf been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Wehen have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SV Wehen
0
Draws
1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Wehen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Wehen have won 1, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Wehen and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 April 2024: SV Wehen 0-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Wehen 64%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (SV Wehen) and 79% (Fortuna Düsseldorf). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 79% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Wehen home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Wehen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Wehen and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of SV Wehen's games and 57% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Wehen and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 36% of SV Wehen's matches and 79% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do SV Wehen and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of SV Wehen's recent matches and 79% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SV Wehen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat SV Wehen 0-2 at BRITA-Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Wehen 1.02 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.14 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SV Wehen fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Wehen attack 0.70 / defence 1.05 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.52 / defence 0.94, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Wehen 17% | Draw 20% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 63%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Wehen 47%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Wehen's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. SV Wehen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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