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Dominant SV Elversberg run riot with a 6-0 hammering of SSV Jahn Regensburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Elversberg beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 6-0 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 2.65 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.85 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. SV Elversberg beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SSV Jahn Regensburg landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.17 / defence 1.16 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.58 / defence 1.56, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 75% | Draw 16% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 9%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 59%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Elversberg's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 59% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights